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"Aid packages [for Ukraine] keep going through, and why they rammed through the $1.7 trillion spending bill... It's all just pressure to stop what's clearly happening here, which is that the off-shore dollar markets are drying up."


Tom: That's why these aid packages [for Ukraine] keep going through, and why they rammed through the $1.7 trillion spending bill, and all the other stuff. It's all just pressure to stop what's clearly happening here, which is that the off-shore dollar markets are drying up. The Fed only raised a quarter point this month, and the more I thought about it the more it became obvious they didn't need to do more than that because eventually the markets were going to catch up to the fact that The Fed has already done enough. The ECB has been exposed as completely dead in the water. I was chatting with Danielle DiMartino-Booth the other day and she said, 'Quietly in the background, QT [Quantitative Tightening] is ticking away, pulling out dollar liquidity from around the world.' At the same time, the US banking system is getting recapitalized, because the reverse repo facility has come down from $2.5 trillion to $2 trillion, and now you can go get 4% in the money markets. So the banks don't have to be sitting in reverse repos, money doesn't have to be parked at The Fed, it can go back into the general economy. Into the banking system, so the banking system is flush with liquidity. But here we are at almost 5%. Everybody told me a year ago that if The Fed goes to 1% the whole thing's gonna collapse. Now the Eurodollar future market is talking 5.5% terminal rate in June--got news for ya: It's going to 7%.

Alex: Going back to your previous point about Ukraine, if there really is a line drawn [by the US] in the summer then you have to sack these people. You have to boot out Blinken, Sullivan, Nuland ...


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