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Renowned Statistician: "There was Never Any Reason to Panic" about COVID

"There was never any reason to panic. The bulk of attributed deaths were north of 65. Meaning, again, lockdowns were never necessary. It became clear by mid April what was happening, as regular readers know. Yet politicians only grew more and more ridiculous in their responses, each trying to outdo the other in showing how much they “cared”—or in their desire to cause pain to influence the election and show you who’s boss."

"We also have to consider the number of iatrogenic deaths, or deaths by doctor. How many people were killed by panicked doctors cramming tubes down their gullets in the Great Ventilator Scare? In the Spanish Flu, huge swathes of citizens were rubbed out by forcing buckets of aspirin into them. Were ventilators the leeches of our day? Was every patient intubated in critical need of air?" - Dr. William Briggs

Renowned statistician Dr. William Briggs, who is a consultant and adjunct Professor of Statistics at Cornell University with specialties in medicine and philosophy of science states, "There was never any reason to panic":

How Many Really Died? When Will Panic End?

Going a day early with the update because of the news about death counts.

Also, I want everybody to pay attention: memorize the next paragraph.

You hear things like this: “Business are suffering because of coronadoom”. NO! NO! NO! We suffered because of the government reaction to coronadoom. Not because of the bug. Do not repeat this error, and call it out each time you hear it.

Update Proof of the contention:

People voted for this evil man’s brand of insanity TWICE.

Lockdowns Kill

You’ll have seen it by now, but if not, here’s the word from the CDC itself:

Comorbidities

Table 3 shows the types of health conditions and contributing causes mentioned in conjunction with deaths involving coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). For 6% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.6 additional conditions or causes per death. The number of deaths with each condition or cause is shown for all deaths and by age groups.

Six percent.

The other number of interest is the official coronadoom death total, which as of Sunday night is 167,558. Math is easy: 167,558 * 0.06 = 10,054. Rounded up, to be fair.

The remaining 157,504 died of other things—an average 2.6 other things!—with the presence of coronadoom. Some fraction of these poor people, considering false positives, died of just other things.

How many times, early on, did we scream, rant, and, yes, rave about juicing the numbers? The answer is a large positive number. Alas, the screams hit the ears of bureaucrats and politicians, our dumbest and evilest classes.

It must be recalled that many deaths were caused by the unnecessary lockdowns themselves. Lockdowns killed. This is not hyperbole or a guess. It is fact.

The guy who calls himself Ethical Skeptic did an analysis of this fact, which I believe is in the ballpark:

Argue about the details if you like. He might be off, and other estimates might be off, about who might eventually have died this year given the absence of the bug. It is clear, no matter what, that coronadoom was, when it was deadly, a catalytic killer only. It couldn’t do the job alone, but only with other diseases present, if indeed it was coronadoom and not the other diseases causing deaths. General lockdowns were therefore illogical, or should have been lifted soon after they were instituted.

CDC also provided this picture, which is the “full” attributed coronadoom deaths by age.

There was never any reason to panic. The bulk of attributed deaths were north of 65. Meaning, again, lockdowns were never necessary. It became clear by mid April what was happening, as regular readers know. Yet politicians only grew more and more ridiculous in their responses, each trying to outdo the other in showing how much they “cared”—or in their desire to cause pain to influence the election and show you who’s boss.

We also have to consider the number of iatrogenic deaths, or deaths by doctor. How many people were killed by panicked doctors cramming tubes down their gullets in the Great Ventilator Scare? In the Spanish Flu, huge swathes of citizens were rubbed out by forcing buckets of aspirin into them. Were ventilators the leeches of our day? Was every patient intubated in critical need of air?

Before we talk about a reckoning, which will not be forthcoming, we have to ask when the panic will end.

When Will I See You Again?

California—and I say this without rancor, but with a sense of fascination—has long been a leader in lunacy. Perhaps the state’s natural beauty and abundance of good things created too many soft men. Soft in body and, like its recent succession of governors, soft in the head.

A tweet from some Blue Cheka (which I lost) read:

#BREAKING This is the new tiered system just announced by @CAgovernor @GavinNewso to provide California counties with guidance re: re-opening.

Counties must remain in each tier for a minimum of 21 days before being eligible to move into the next tier.

Here are those guidelines:

There appears to be no one of intelligence or goodwill left in charge in that once great state. 1 to 3.9 “cases” per 100,000 to reach the utopia of “some” businesses opening. Some!

My dear readers, what is the false positive rate for coronadoom testing? Yes. In the range of 1 to 3.9 per 100,000. Not only that, look at the bottom category, which requires 1 in 100,000 for only “most” businesses to reopen with “modifications”.

Do the brilliant minds—they tell us of their genius constantly—in California universities and government not know that COVID will never go away? That there will always be positives showing up on tests forever, not only the fake positives, but real ones, too?

And this is just testing! I.e. “cases”. Not deaths, or even, the good Lord help us, illnesses! Positive tests! My mind has actually boggled.

California will never reopen if these guidelines are adhered to. I mean never as in never.

This Newsom has reached a very special level of evil stupidity thought by scientists to be impossible. Personally, since I do not live there and the idiocy is causing many people I loathe (hello, Hollywood!) great pain, the longer it lasts the funnier it becomes, in a dark sort of way.

The only real worry is that often Californian madness spreads like a cancer. Our rulers, none too bright, too often play follow the leader. They believe this excuses their mistakes.

There are other forms of incompetence, like NYC’s Bill de Blasio, who openly seeks to cause pain. He thinks only the “rich” go out to eat, and he has never forgiven the “rich” in the city for not voting for him. So he says he’ll begin think about reopening “next year.” Alas, de Blasio has not been a victim of the increased number of shootings in the city.

Pay Up, Sucker

Politicians, especially in a democracy, never admit a mistake. Their reaction when confronted is to increase whatever mistake they were caught making. To show how much faith they have in themselves. And to punish you for attempting to harm them.

We’ve seen it in the coronadoom crisis with masks, lockdowns and now reopenings. Newsome said, when called out on his bad statistics, that “California [was] ‘not completely abandoning’ ICU and hospitalization data, ‘we’re just not leading with those criteria’ as positive test rate/test numbers become critical metrics”.

What he didn’t say was that those worthless numbers are “critical” to him, so he can avoid admitting a mistake. And so that he can help his pals, the oligarchs who are his backers, shadowy men who have grown very rich indeed during this crisis. Isn’t the stock market soaring as people lose their jobs and businesses to seeming government incompetence? Or was it more than incompetence?

I warned us very early on that no reckoning was coming. Politicians, bureaucrats, and the press and oligarchs are going to get away with what they did to us. Oh, there might be a sacrificial nobody here and there subjected to official ridicule, there might be a politician or two coming close to losing reelection. But that’s about it.

Trillions wasted, lives wrecked, wasted, ruined, bodies piling up from government action, the subsequent riots, on and on.

They will get away with all this. And they will even, as The Godmother (Cuomo) is doing, congratulate themselves on a job well done, while expecting your applause.

After all, what you can you do? Rebel? HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!

The Numbers

Sources: daily tests, CDC official toll number one, number two (CDC has two official sources that have differences). The media reports are always greater than CDC numbers.

Here are the number of daily tests:

This is a tad misleading, because I’m doing this Sunday and not Monday night, and there’s no data yet for Sunday. Tests will fall on that day. But it’s not entirely misleading. Testing is not falling fast enough, even maybe holding steady. How depressing. This is so even as the CDC says if you’re not sick, don’t get tested. This is not advice most state governments want to hear, so it will be interesting how they ignore it.

We still have nitwit propagandists shouting about “new” “cases”. When what they mean is positive tests. Next time you hear somebody bellyaching about “new” “cases” say, “So what?” Make them own their ignorance about what a “case” is. Which in most cases is the sniffles, or less, even no symptoms whatsoever.

“Cases” aren’t big deals! Focus on deaths, or at least true and not attributed hospitalizations.

From the beginning I’ve been warning us about juiced numbers, about the difference between dying from and dying with coronadoom. This is why I have been insisting we say “reported deaths” or “attributed deaths” and not deaths, which exaggerate. We now—finally!—have the CDC admitting what we said all along. Watch your language.

Here is the CDC’s attributed deaths, current as of Sunday.

This is attributed, thus exaggerated, deaths. Again, even with late reporting it is clear there is no longer and crisis. It is over. Tell your politicians. They’ll listen to evidence! (Ha.)

Here’s the real number, the only one worth looking at (beside testing). The all-cause weekly deaths. Recall it takes up to 8 weeks to get full counts, but by the third week most are in. The black dots are the last three weeks.

Dashed line, as always, is all cause deaths minus official coronadoom deaths. The peak in the dashed line is proof government actions killed.

Now what Ethical Skeptic is saying is that the bump, which is real, would have been spread out in a more typical fashion, given no government panic. Given the ages of those who died, this is very likely true, at least to a large extent.

In any case, there is no crisis. None. Zero. Zippo. Nada. Keeping up the panic at this time is pure politics and general madness to which democracies are prone. What an appalling conclusion.

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Pray an Our Father now for the restoration of the Mass and the Church as well as for the Triumph of the Kingdom of the Sacred Heart of Jesus and the Immaculate Heart of Mary.

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