Skip to main content

What is the Statistical Chance of Trump with COVID Dying vs. Biden without COVID Dying?

Renowned statistician and humorist Dr. William Briggs, who is a consultant and adjunct Professor of Statistics at Cornell University with specialties in medicine and philosophy of science, gives us the answer:

We, too, have not examined Mr Trump, but since the Times has set the standard of allowing uninformed commentary on the course of the President’s illness, we’ll do them same.

Starting with this opinion on masks from Dr Fauci himself.

In the United States, people should not be walking around with masks….There’s no reason to be walking around with a mask. When you’re in the middle of an outbreak, wearing a mask might make people feel a little bit better, and it might even block a droplet. But it’s not providing the perfect protection that people think that it is.

Well, masks have become our new national religion, an obvious outward display of faith. How dare Fauci speak against them.

Anyway, Mr Trump is 74. The CDC says that 1.2% people in his age bracket, 65-74, have died this year from causes other than COVID-19. It also says 0.13% of these people—ten times fewer—have died at least with, and not necessarily of, the coronavirus.

As long as we’re speculating, we might as well do so about Joe Biden, who is 77. In his age bracket, 75-84 years old, 2.9% of Americans this age have died so far this year of causes other than COVID-19. And 0.32% have died at least with the coronavirus.

In both age brackets, then, Americans have about a ten times greater risk of dying from something other than COVID-19. But those in the older bucket are dying at rates about twice those in the younger bucket (from any cause).

Which means what we always knew it means: Older people die more often than younger.

The difference here is that the President has tested positive for the coronavirus, and has been said to be experiencing “mild” symptoms.

The President’s weight is likely a strike against him. Based on an item from the Drudge tabloid, the Times speculated the President may also have other unreported comorbidities. We are thus free to speculate that his health before the infection is as reported, which is fine.

Having comorbidities is never good. Of those those who died with the coronadoom, about four times as many had other illnesses, 22% versus 6% with no comorbidities, according to the CDC.

But these aren’t the right numbers to use to judge the President’s prognosis. What we want to know is the infection fatality rate for people like him. Nobody really knows this number yet, since all the data is not in. Some estimate it as high as 4.2% for the President’s sex and age bracket.

Meaning a 95.8% chance of recovery.

Some estimate women do about twice as well as men. Thus, according to Gender Theory, if Trump changed his Mr to Mrs, she’d have a better chance for survival. (I dare you to find a professor who will openly and on-the-record disagree with this.)

A better guess is to use reports from Mr Trump’s actual doctors. Chief of Staff Mark Meadows at Walter Reed said “The president is doing very well”. He said he was “cautiously optimistic” about Trump’s progress, and that his symptoms were already “resolving and improving”.

Or we could take a look at the man himself, who looks like he’s doing okay.

Trumps is going to disappoint a lot of people if he lives—which the vast majority of people infected with this virus do. You can read all about that in The Price of Panic: How the Tyranny of Experts Turned a Pandemic into a Catastrophe. 

To support this site and its wholly independent host using credit card or PayPal (in any amount) click here.[https://wmbriggs.com/post/32810/]

Pray an Our Father now for the restoration of the Mass and the Church as well as for the Triumph of the Kingdom of the Sacred Heart of Jesus and the Immaculate Heart of Mary.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

"Exorcist Fr. Ripperger is asking everyone to say this Prayer until the Election is Resolved"

A good friend of the Catholic Monitor got this from a group message. She said "exorcist Fr. Chad Ripperger is asking everyone to say this prayer until the election is resolved": Prayer of Command In His Name and by the power of His Cross and Blood, I ask Jesus to bind any evil spirits, forces and powers of the earth, air, fire, or water, of the netherworld and the satanic forces of nature.  By the power of the Holy Spirit and by His authority, I ask Jesus Christ to break any curses, hexes, or spells and send them back to where they came from, if it be His Holy Will.  I beseech Thee Lord Jesus to protect us by pouring Thy Precious Blood on us (my family, etc.), which Thou hast shed for us and I ask Thee to command that any departing spirits leave quietly, without disturbance, and go straight to Thy Cross to dispose of as Thou sees fit.  I ask Thee to bind any demonic interaction, interplay, or communications.  I place N. (Person, place or thing) under the protectio

High-profile Lawyer Barnes: Amy Coney Barrett would be a Disaster

High-profile trial lawyer Robert Barnes who deals in civil, criminal and constitutional law reported on Twitter that Amy Coney Barrett would be a disaster. The Barnes Twitter report shows that Coney Barrett has " sid[ed] with the government on the lockdowns, on uncompensated takings, on excusing First Amendment infringements & Fourth Amendment violations... [and] exclaimed the benefits of Jacobson, the decision that green-lit forced vaccines & carved out an emergency exception to Constitutional protection in "public health" or "emergency" cases used to justify forced sterilizations & detention camps... [and] hid behind precedent... to prohibit pro-life activists from exercising their free speech ." The Avvo.com lawyer directory reports that attorney "Robert Barnes embraces the challenge to defend the little guy and stand up for what is right. This is why he left the prestigious Yale Law School, whom publicly stated their unwill

If Kamala Harris' Father is part White & part Jamaican African and her Mother is Asian-Indian then is she really Black?

  Is Joe Biden's running mate really Black? If Kamala Harris' father is part white and part Jamaican African and her mother is Asian-Indian then is she really Black? Reason.com tries to figure it out: Kamala Harris, Joe Biden's pick to be the Democratic Party's vice-presidential nominee, is the daughter of an Indian immigrant mother and a Jamaican immigrant father. Her father, as I understand it, has ancestors of both European and African origin. [Welcome new Volokh readers. FYI, I've been working on a book on the American Law of Race, with this forthcoming article the first relevant output. My own opinion is that Ms. Harris should be deemed American, period, but there is no such box on government forms, and if you decline to state your race, someone will decide for you… First things first. There is no multiracial or mixed-race category in American law in any jurisdiction. Nor is there an Indian category. So Harris cannot be legally Indian, nor can she b