Velina Tchakarova: "Russian demands are clear: logistics, freight & shipment of Russian grain and fertilizers must be ensured, Russian banks reconnected to SWIFT..."

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Velina Tchakarova

@vtchakarova

Very long post on Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Russia’s withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been carefully prepared in series of steps over the last few months. This is not a sudden move, this is a deliberate strategy. As a result of recent Russian attacks on infrastructure in Odesa Oblast, 60,000 tonnes of grain were destroyed in the port of Chornomorsk (one of the three key ports for the Black Sea Grain Initiative). Odesa has also been under Russian attacks. Russia's Defence Ministry said on Wednesday it would deem all ships travelling to Ukrainian ports to be potential carriers of military cargo and their flag countries to be parties to the conflict on the Ukrainian side. Ukraine has proposed sending grain ships via the territorial waters of nearby NATO nations but sources told

@gCaptain

that the US Navy shutdown the request to protect ships near NATO shores. The Russian demands are clear: logistics, freight & shipment of Russian grain and fertilizers must be ensured, Russian banks reconnected to SWIFT and supplies of spare parts for agricultural machinery resumed. At its core, this move by Russia is a calculated pressure tactic aimed at the West, with the intent of obtaining approval for Rosselkhozbank's inclusion in SWIFT, thereby contravening the prevailing sanctions regime. Achieving this milestone would pave the way for the efficient freight, logistics, and shipping of Russian food commodities and fertilizers, setting a precedent for circumventing Western sanctions and injecting much-needed forex liquidity into the Russian economy. Russia is ready to trigger Food Crisis 2.0 if necessary and the Global South will suffer the most. If Ukraine is unable to export food, the population of the poorest countries will be on the verge of survival. In addition, the global economy will suffer. The price of grain will increase and not all countries will be able to afford to buy agricultural products, which means that the price of food will increase significantly: flour, grains, meat. By manufacturing the conditions conducive for Food Crisis 2.0, Russia stands to wield significant leverage over African and Asian countries, given their heavy dependence on Russian and Ukrainian commodities. This, in turn, serves to exert additional pressure on the West to acquiesce to Russia's demands. #Velsig #geoeconomics #geopolitics https://hilltowerresourceadvisors.com/energy/navigating-the-geopolitical-chessboard-africas-response-to-russias-war-against-ukraine-and-the-global-food-challengeo…

3:05 PM · Jul 19, 2023

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