Like Pope Francis, Kathy Hochul mistacks the example of a "complex" physical system that is Earth's climate system for a"non-complex" physical system in building the model of this system that leads the government of New York State to the mistaken and extremely costly belief that the economy of New York State must be decarbonized else the citizens of New York State will suffer the agony of "Catastrophic Anthropogenic Global Warming."
To realize that there is no reason to believe these citizens will suffer this agony, Kathy Hochul must realize that Earth's climate system is not the "non-complex" physical system she assumes it to be but rather is a "complex" physical system, where a "complex" physical system exhibits one-or more "emergent properties," each of of which is a property of the whole system and not of the separate parts of this system whereas a "complex" physical system exhibits no such properties.
The mistaken belief of Governor Hochul and Pope Francis may have resulted from being tought that every physical system is a "non-complex" physical system by a professor of mathematical statistics, for that this is so is assumed by mathematical statistics. Means for building a model of a "complex" physical system were unavaial until they were invented by the late Ronald Arlie Christensen, then a PhD candidate in the theoretical physics program of the University of California, Berkeley. These means were the Principles of Reasoning that Christensen called "entropy minimax." "Entropy Minimax" solves the ancient, previouslly unsolved "Problem of Induction," where the problem is of how, in a logically illegitmate way, to select the set of inferences that will be made by a "complex" physical system from a larger set of possibilities. Circa 1985 and after receiving his PhD, Christensen published the seven volume treatise on "entropy minimax:" that he called the "Entropy Minimax Sourcebook but this treatise was read and understood by very few people. In particular, it was read neither by Kathy Hochul nor by Pope Francis.
In the book that is entitled "The Psychology of Totalitarianism," the staatistician and professor of clinical psychology Mattias Desmet presents the findings of a statistical study that he conducted on the belief of the citizens of a country that a a precursor to totalitarian rule over this country. They believe together with Kathy Hochul and Pope Francis that a "complex" physical system is a "non-complex physical system. To prevent Western civilization from succumbing to totalitarian rule we must teach the cpeople who are the citizens of this civilization that the Principles of Reasoning are "entropy minimax," as described by Ronald Christensen in the Engropy Minimax Sourcebook.
I am Terry Oldberg
Engineer/Scientist/Public Policy Researcher
Author of a series of three articles on The Principles of Reasoning called "Entropy Minimax" in the peer-reviewed scientific literature
Writer of the Substack titled "Building a Model of a Physical System Without Making Any Mistakes"
Los Altos Hills, California
650-518-6636 ( mobile )
terry_oldberg@yahoo.com ( email )
Los Altos Hills,
She may be “so excited,” but while our airhead governor isn’t looking the world is passing her by. A few data points from the past few days:
The Wall Street Journal has a front-page article today, with headline and sub-headline “America’s Ambitious Climate Plan Is Faltering. Global emissions are at records, while shift away from fossil fuels slows amid high costs, surging power demand.” There are obligatory nods to the supposed climate crisis (this is the Journal’s news pages, not the opinion section), but there is no avoiding the reality. Examples from the article: “Climate optimism is fading. Higher costs, pushback from businesses and consumers, and the slow rollout of technology are delaying the transition from fossil fuels. . . . Investment in improving the efficiency of buildings—a major driver of emissions—fell last year, the International Energy Agency says. Spending decisions happening now can lock in emissions for decades. Multibillion-dollar liquefied-natural-gas terminals being built in Texas and Louisiana could serve a projected demand boom in places such as Southeast Asia.”
How’s that EV roll-out going? From Reuters, September 19: “[A]uto industry . . . data [released] on Thursday . . . showed the fourth consecutive monthly drop in EV sales, prompting the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA) to demand "urgent action" to prevent further decline. . . . Sales of fully electric cars slumped 43.9% in August, as the bloc's biggest EV markets Germany and France recorded drops of 68.8% and 33.1% respectively, ACEA said.” Those are rather dramatic drops. In the usual European way, the manufacturers’ trade association took consumer resistance to buying EVs as an opportunity to demand more government subsidies and mandates: “[The ACEA said that] EU institutions [need] to come forward with urgent relief measures before new CO2 targets for cars and vans come into effect in 2025.”
This one is from a few weeks ago, but another so-called “green hydrogen” project has failed. It was only two months ago that I had a post on the failure of a big green hydrogen project in Australia. The latest such failure, last month, comes from Germany. From Hydrogen Insight, August 14: “The refusal of potential green hydrogen customers to sign binding sales agreements, as well as uncertainty over the price of the product, contributed to the collapse of a plan to build a renewable H2 project in the German city of Hannover. . . . [Officials originally] estimat[ed] that it would cost around €25m. However, by the time the project was cancelled in March this year, costs had ballooned five-fold to around €136m.” This was for just a 17 MW facility.
Maybe some day those “underreprestented communities” that Governor Hochul talks about will figure out that what’s holding them back is reliance on government planning and handouts as the route to economic betterment...