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Intelligence: Mexico Will Be World Power, China Faces Chaos

http://www.newsmax.com/headlines/friedman_next_100_years/2009/02/15/182237.html

Intelligence Expert: China Faces Chaos in Coming Decades While Mexico Will Be World Power

Sunday, February 15, 2009 6:00 PM

By: Jim Meyers Article Font Size


Political scientist and author George Friedman tells Newsmax that Mexico will emerge later in this century as a major world power — while China could face “social chaos.”

He also warns that the U.S. will encounter increasing difficulties in supplying troops in Afghanistan who are fighting the Taliban.

Friedman is the founder of the intelligence and forecasting company Stratfor. His latest book is “The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century.”

[Editor's Note: See George Friedman discuss “The Next 100 Years” - Go Here Now]

Among his predictions: The American conflict with radical Islam will end and be replaced by a full-blown new Cold War with Russia, and Turkey, Poland and Mexico will emerge as new world powers.

“Mexico is already the world's 13th largest economy,” Friedman told Newsmax’s Ashley Martella.

“It has over a trillion dollars GDP. It has 100 million people. It is a great power. And as it develops, and it is developing at a dramatically fast rate, we will see it emerging later in the century as one of the top powers in the world…

“People have, I think, a lagging perception of a lot of countries, and Mexico is not what it used to be.”

Martella noted that Friedman has predicted China will undergo a major extended internal crisis and asked: “To what extent, and has it already begun?”

“That crisis certainly has begun,” Friedman responded.

“We have to remember that China is a Third World country. Of the 1.3 billion people in China, over a billion of those live in standards of living that are Third World. A very thin layer of China is what Westerners look at when we look at this economic expansion, which has been extraordinary.

“China depends on exports. It is an extension of the American economy. When the Americans catch cold, China catches pneumonia. And when China catches pneumonia, when exports slow down, people are thrown out of work.

“In the United States, that means your 401(k) and your retirement is in trouble. In China that could very rapidly mean malnutrition.

“So China is always on the edge of social chaos. It avoids it when it grows very rapidly. But it’s very clear that the period of rapid growth of the past 30 years is ending.”

Martella observed that Friedman believes the U.S. will enter a new golden age in the second half of this century and asked: “What do you envision?”

“I see a situation in which American power will continue to grow,” Friedman said.

“The United States has been expanding dramatically since 1870. It is the one country in the world that has systematically, in every decade, increased its power by any measure that you look at. We see that intensifying.”

Friedman predicts the U.S. will also enter “a new energy age” in the second half of this century. With the hydrocarbon age ending, America will use its control of space to place solar collectors in orbit, which will beam back energy to earth in the form of microwaves and “turn the United States into a super Saudi Arabia. In other words, it will be a country that not only controls space but utilizes it for driving the economies of the earth.”

Discussing Pakistan and Afghanistan, Friedman warned: “For the past several months the American supply line into Afghanistan, which runs from the Pakistani port of Karachi up through the Khyber Pass and into Afghanistan, has been attacked on numerous occasions.

“A bridge northwest of Peshawar, a city on this route, was blown up.

“We have 30,000 troops in Afghanistan. NATO has more. All of them are dependent on this extraordinarily long supply line, and the Taliban has demonstrated that it can destroy it or interrupt it as it wishes.

“The U.S. has no troops in Pakistan to protect the supply line. Therefore Obama’s plan to send an additional 30,000 troops to Afghanistan raises the question of how he plans to supply those troops.”

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