Skip to main content

Posts

Why did only Texas have an abnormally huge 9.6-point polling error as compared to normal error in Ohio & Florida that is larger than even 2020's abnormally huge general 7.1 polling errors according to ChatGPT?

ChapGPT: MultiState Elections is not itself a polling organization. It aggregates election ratings and polling averages, including RealClearPolitics, and compares them with actual results. The interesting question is how unusual a 9.6-point miss really is. The answer: It is considerably larger than normal, but polling errors of this magnitude are not unprecedented. Historical polling accuracy A study of 550 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races from 2000–2025 found the following average absolute polling errors: Election cycle Average error 2000 2.6 points 2004 3.2 points 2008 4.8 points 2012 4.2 points 2016 5.3 points 2018 3.7 points 2020 7.1 points 2022 4.2 points 2024 4.6 points Source: Polling Forecast – Measuring American Polling Error . Polling Forecast+1 How does Abbott's result compare? Texas gubernatorial polling discrepancy RCP polling average Abbott +2.5 Actual result Hinojosa +7.1 9.6 points Difference between projected and actual margins There are three particularly impor...
Recent posts

‘Satanic ritual abuse’: Full testimony of Cardinal Bernardin’s alleged victim 'Agnes' of Malachi Martin's famous novel..."I write this now because I hear...movement to canonize Joseph Bernardin"

‘Satanic ritual abuse’: Full testimony of Cardinal Bernardin’s alleged victim Pray an Our Father now for reparation for the sins committed because of Francis’s Amoris Laetitia and  for the restoration of the Church. Stop for a moment of silence, ask Jesus Christ what He wants you to do now and next. In this silence remember God, Father, Son and Holy Ghost – Three Divine Persons yet One God, has an ordered universe where you can know truth and falsehood as well as never forget that He wants you to have eternal happiness with Him as his son or daughter by grace. Make this a practice. By doing this you are doing more good than reading anything here or anywhere else on the Internet. The Catholic Monitor The Catholic Monitor https://www.thecatholicmonitor.com I ask all The Catholic Monitor readers to also   pray   for the   end   of this   war .   Watch   " Trump Calls Putin To Get Iran War Offramp! w/ Scott Ritter " on   YouTube : ... Read m...