Why did only Texas have an abnormally huge 9.6-point polling error as compared to normal error in Ohio & Florida that is larger than even 2020's abnormally huge general 7.1 polling errors according to ChatGPT?
ChapGPT:
MultiState Elections is not itself a polling organization. It aggregates election ratings and polling averages, including RealClearPolitics, and compares them with actual results.
The interesting question is how unusual a 9.6-point miss really is.
The answer: It is considerably larger than normal, but polling errors of this magnitude are not unprecedented.
Historical polling accuracy
A study of 550 U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races from 2000–2025 found the following average absolute polling errors:
Election cycle | Average error |
|---|---|
2000 | 2.6 points |
2004 | 3.2 points |
2008 | 4.8 points |
2012 | 4.2 points |
2016 | 5.3 points |
2018 | 3.7 points |
2020 | 7.1 points |
2022 | 4.2 points |
2024 | 4.6 points |
Source: Polling Forecast – Measuring American Polling Error.
How does Abbott's result compare?
Texas gubernatorial polling discrepancy
RCP polling average
Abbott +2.5
Actual result
Hinojosa +7.1
9.6 points
Difference between projected and actual margins
There are three particularly important findings in the historical research:
2020 was exceptionally bad. The average polling error in Senate and gubernatorial races was 7.1 points.
Republican-leaning states have been particularly problematic. Since 2018, polling has tended to overstate Democratic support in the most Republican states.
Adding more polls doesn't eliminate the problem. Polls can share the same underlying sampling and turnout assumptions, producing a common error.
Polling Forecast+1
My biggest observation
The Texas result raises a more important methodological question than simply whether one pollster got it wrong.
If nine polls collectively showed Abbott ahead, why did their errors point in essentially the same direction?
That suggests a possible systematic problem involving:
Who actually turns out to vote.
How pollsters weight Latino voters.
Whether Republican-leaning independents are adequately represented.
Whether voters who are dissatisfied with the national administration were underestimated.
One distinction worth preserving: A 9.6-point miss by an aggregate of polls is not necessarily a 9.6-point error by every individual pollster.
I'd be particularly interested in comparing MultiState's polling averages against actual results in other Republican-leaning states in 2026. That would tell us whether Texas was an isolated failure or part of a broader polling-model problem.
Florida's result is actually a useful comparison because it shows that the polling error was not necessarily the same across states.
Texas vs. Florida: 2026 governor races
Measure | Texas | Florida |
|---|---|---|
Pre-election RCP average | Abbott +2.5 | Donalds +4.0 |
Actual result | Hinojosa +7.1 | Donalds +1.3 |
Polling error | 9.6 points | 2.7 points |
Direction of error | Toward Democrats | Toward Democrats |
Sources: MultiState Elections' Florida results and Texas results previously discussed.
What does this tell us?
1. Florida polling was considerably more accurate.
Donalds won, but by considerably less than the polling average suggested. The polls overestimated his margin by 2.7 points.
2. Texas had a much larger miss.
The Texas polling average did not merely underestimate the Democratic margin slightly. It got the direction of the race wrong.
3. There may have been a broader Democratic shift, but it varied considerably by state.
Both states had polling averages favoring Republicans, and both produced results more favorable to Democrats than the polls indicated.
Polling error comparison
Texas
9.6 points
Florida
2.7 points
My conclusion: Texas looks like a substantially larger polling failure than Florida. The Florida result suggests that the Texas discrepancy cannot automatically be explained by a uniform nationwide polling error.
One important next comparison would be Ohio, where Amy Acton won by 7.9 points despite polling showing her ahead by 4.7. That is another 3.2-point miss, and it helps establish whether Texas was an outlier or part of a wider pattern.
Ohio is a particularly interesting comparison because it shows a substantial Democratic victory, but the polling error was much smaller than Texas.
Texas vs. Ohio vs. Florida — 2026
State | Pre-election polling | Actual result | Error |
|---|---|---|---|
Texas | Abbott +2.5 | Hinojosa +7.1 | 9.6 points |
Ohio | Acton +4.5 | Acton +7.9 | 3.4 points |
Florida | Donalds +4.0 | Donalds +1.3 | 2.7 points |
Sources: MultiState Ohio results; RealClearPolling Ohio.
Note: Ohio's RCP average is +4.5, rather than the +4.7 figure previously cited.
What makes Ohio especially interesting?
1. Ohio polling got the winner right.
Every poll in the RCP average showed Amy Acton ahead. The final result was larger than anticipated, but the polls identified the direction of the race correctly.
2. Ohio experienced a substantial political shift.
Acton defeated Vivek Ramaswamy by 7.9 points, ending 16 years of Republican governors. Democrats also made gains in legislative and other statewide races.
3. Texas was the real polling anomaly among these three.
The comparison is striking:
Absolute polling errors
Texas
9.6
Ohio
3.4
Florida
2.7
My interpretation
These three races suggest two different phenomena:
A Democratic political wave: Ohio and Florida both moved in the Democratic direction relative to polling expectations.
A potentially exceptional Texas polling failure: Texas missed by nearly three times as much as Ohio and more than three times as much as Florida.
I ask all The Catholic Monitor readers to also pray for the end of this war. Watch "Trump Calls Putin To Get Iran War Offramp! w/ Scott Ritter" on YouTube: ...Read more Please Pray for Trump to end the Iran War: Watch "Trump Calls Putin To Get Iran War Offramp! w/ Scott Ritter" on YouTubeFranklin & Graham calls on Christians to pray for 'end to the bloodshed' ahead of Trump-Putin summit...7mo
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Conclave Notes:
-- Open letter urges Pope Leo XIV to correct ‘scandalous incoherence’ in Amoris Laetitia...[Wow! Even notorious Popesplainer Fr.] Harrison warns that Pope Francis taught a ‘dangerous self-contradiction’ on Communion for the divorced and ‘remarried,’ petitioning Pope Leo to correct the record. [https://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2025/08/open-letter-urges-pope-leo-xiv-to.html]
-- Are the Cardinals who will participate in the upcoming conclave authentically appointed & morally justified in voting, or will the shadow of Francis's possible illegitimacy cast itself over the next papacy? [https://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2025/04/are-cardinals-who-will-participate-in.html]
-- 5 Dubia Questions for 1P5's Steve Skojec & All faithful Catholics especially Francis is definitely Pope Cardinals, Bishops & pundits [https://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2019/06/5-dubia-questions-for-steve-skojec.html]
Francis Notes:
l– Doctor of the Church St. Francis de Sales totally confirmed beyond any doubt the possibility of a heretical pope and what must be done by the Church in such a situation:
“[T]he Pope… WHEN he is EXPLICITLY a heretic, he falls ipso facto from his dignity and out of the Church, and the Church MUST either deprive him, or, as some say, declare him deprived, of his Apostolic See.”
(The Catholic Controversy, by St. Francis de Sales, Pages 305-306)
Saint Robert Bellarmine, also, said “the Pope heretic is not deposed ipso facto, but must be declared deposed by the Church.”
[https://archive.org/stream/SilveiraImplicationsOfNewMissaeAndHereticPopes/Silveira%20Implications%20of%20New%20Missae%20and%20Heretic%20Popes_djvu.txt]
– “If Francis is a Heretic, What should Canonically happen to him?”: http://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2020/12/if-francis-is-heretic-what-should.html
– “Could Francis be a Antipope even though the Majority of Cardinals claim he is Pope?”: http://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2019/03/could-francis-be-antipope-even-though.html
– If Francis betrays Benedict XVI & the”Roman Rite Communities” like he betrayed the Chinese Catholics we must respond like St. Athanasius, the Saintly English Bishop Robert Grosseteste & “Eminent Canonists and Theologians” by “Resist[ing]” him: https://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2021/12/if-francis-betrays-benedict-xvi.html
– LifeSiteNews, “Confusion explodes as Pope Francis throws magisterial weight behind communion for adulterers,” December 4, 2017:
The AAS guidelines explicitly allows “sexually active adulterous couples facing ‘complex circumstances’ to ‘access the sacraments of Reconciliation and the Eucharist.'”
– On February 2018, in Rorate Caeli, Catholic theologian Dr. John Lamont:
“The AAS statement… establishes that Pope Francis in Amoris Laetitia has affirmed propositions that are heretical in the strict sense.”
– On December 2, 2017, Bishop Rene Gracida:
“Francis’ heterodoxy is now official. He has published his letter to the Argentina bishops in Acta Apostlica Series making those letters magisterial documents.”
Pray an Our Father now for the restoration of the Church by the bishops by the grace of God.
Election Notes:
– Intel Cryptanalyst-Mathematician on Biden Steal: “212Million Registered Voters & 66.2% Voting,140.344 M Voted…Trump got 74 M, that leaves only 66.344 M for Biden” [http://catholicmonitor.blogspot.com/2020/12/intel-cryptanalyst-mathematician-on.html?m=1]
– Will US be Venezuela?: Ex-CIA Official told Epoch Times “Chávez started to Focus on [Smartmatic] Voting Machines to Ensure Victory as early as 2003”: http://catholicmonitor.blogspot.com/2020/12/will-us-be-venezuela-ex-cia-official.html
– Tucker Carlson’s Conservatism Inc. Biden Steal Betrayal is explained by “One of the Greatest Columns ever Written” according to Rush: http://catholicmonitor.blogspot.com/2021/01/tucker-carlsons-conservatism-inc-biden.html?m=1
– A Hour which will Live in Infamy: 10:01pm November 3, 2020:
http://www.thecatholicmonitor.com/2021/01/a-hour-which-will-live-in-infamy-1001pm.html?m=1
What is needed right now to save America from those who would destroy our God given rights is to pray at home or in church and if called to even go to outdoor prayer rallies in every town and city across the United States for God to pour out His grace on our country to save us from those who would use a Reichstag Fire-like incident to destroy our civil liberties. [Is the [J6] DC Capitol Incident Comparable to the Nazi Reichstag Fire Incident where the German People Lost their Civil Liberties?: http://catholicmonitor.blogspot.com/2021/01/is-dc-capital-incident-comparable-to.html?m=1 and Epoch Times Show Crossroads on Capitol Incident: “Anitfa ‘Agent Provocateurs‘”:
http://catholicmonitor.blogspot.com/2021/01/epoch-times-show-crossroads-on-capital.html?m=1]
Pray an Our Father now for the grace to know God’s Will and to do it.
Pray an Our Father now for America.
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